El Niño Impact: Could India Face Its Lowest Monsoon in 17 Years?
India's 2026 southwest monsoon is around 15?low the long-term average, raising concerns that El Niño could contribute to the country's lowest monsoon rainfall since 2009.
Dharshini
El Niño Impact: Could India Face Its Lowest Monsoon in 17 Years?
India's 2026 southwest monsoon has recorded rainfall around 15% below the long-term average, raising concerns over the country's overall monsoon performance this year.
If the rainfall deficit continues, 2026 could become India's weakest monsoon in around 17 years, since 2009, according to reports.
The strengthening El Niño conditions have been identified as one of the key factors that could influence monsoon performance. Changes in rainfall patterns associated with El Niño may increase concerns over the continuation of the current deficit.
A prolonged rainfall shortage could have implications for agricultural production, crop yields and food prices, with experts warning that weaker monsoon conditions could create challenges for farming and the broader food supply chain.
However, the final rainfall deficit for 2026 will depend on the rainfall received before the southwest monsoon season officially concludes. The overall situation could therefore change depending on how the remaining monsoon period progresses.
